Comments on the Election

Hello readers!

As of this morning, Friday the 13th, the UK General Election 2019 results have been declared. This post will be separated into multiple parts, to account for my predictions before the campaign (spoiler: I was right); to the result here in Scotland; and to the reality in England, and what it will mean for the future. I aim to provide a preliminary analysis of why the results turned out as they did, though we will need more in-depth data to uncover some of the mysteries.

My Predictions

In this post written six weeks before the election, I made three concrete predictions, and raised the point that the NHS would be a major part of the election campaign. The polls agree that, besides Brexit, the NHS was indeed a big part of voters’ concerns.

As for my three predictions, I was correct on all of them, though some were more prescient than others.

Claim 1: “I don’t think the Liberal Democrats are going to do as well its leader, Jo Swinson, hopes.”

This proved fantastically accurate, or dare I say, prophetic. It’s true that the Liberal Democrat vote increased 7.4% to 11.5%, but this did nothing other than gift seats to the Tories. Jo Swinson lost her seat, confirming what I thought and what the polls were saying: no one likes Jo Swinson.

Moreover, judging from the campaign, Jo Swinson’s Lib Dems lost for the exact reasons I predicted: their revoke policy was undemocratic, and a large number of Remain voters (especially we, the young) care about the NHS, education and welfare. Jo Swinson’s record in coalition was less than stellar on those counts.

Claim 2: “the Green Party will do pretty well, though it probably won’t gain any new seats.”

This was precisely correct: the Green vote increased from 1.6% to 2.7% and they retained their 1 seat. The high profile of environmental issues in the media helped them. I should say that Labour would have won some more seats if the Greens had stood down in some constituencies, but hey, who cares about Brexit if we can pretend to save the planet?

Claim 3: “The Conservative Party will be punished hard in Scotland.”

This one turned out to be mostly correct. The Scottish Tories lost 7 of their 13 seats, and their vote share decreased by 3.5%. I was hoping for a wipe-out, but I’m sure my fellow SNP activists are happy with the result.

As for why the Scottish Tories got 25% of the vote, I’ve tried to understand it, and I’ve come to the following conclusion. About half of Scottish Tory voters do see Boris Johnson’s policies on the economy and NHS as being pretty despicable. I think they justify voting for the Tories with the idea that those policies can be fixed, whereas the breakup of the UK—and exit from the EU—are permanent decisions.

The thing with identities is that they are powerful. Unionists in Scotland believe they are British, and it’s incredibly difficult for them to give that up; they will vote to keep it, even if it means enormous child poverty, homelessness, and decimating the NHS.

What will happen to Scotland?

In one word: Independence. In two words: EU membership. The long, in-depth explanation is going to be too complicated to discuss here. The road to independence will be long, hard, and treacherous. An almighty confrontation between the Scottish government and the Tory government in Westminster will be just the start.

I wish I could be optimistic and say that everything will be alright for Scotland. I think it will—in the future. But the next couple of years are going to be chaotic and uncertain. The double whammy of Tory government and Brexit is going to devastate this country.

What happened in England?

I don’t need to tell you this: Corbyn lost and BoJo’s Tories won. But you know who also lost? England, as a nation. British democracy. Rational thought and truth.

As for why this happened, I’m not sure yet. There are many obvious answers: the antisemitism debacle which was parroted by the media ad infinitum—and which Corbyn would have nipped in the bud long ago, if he had any sense. It’s true that the media coverage was pathetic, and incredibly hostile to Labour; but that doesn’t excuse Corbyn for giving them ammunition.

Then there’s Corbyn himself, who could not get across to the electorate like he did in 2017. But hey, I predicted this long ago. I loved most of Jeremy Corbyn’s policies, but I was always sceptical of the man himself; I called him “less than prime-ministerly” and pithily remarked: “Corbyn? Get a tie.”

I was hoping the young were going to save Labour the same way they did last time, particularly since 1.5 million people registered to vote. Source I don’t know what the hell happened. Did the young vote for the Lib Dems and Greens in a grand act of irony? Did we not come out to vote on polling day? Or was it simply not enough to outvote the bloody pensioners and turkeys?

All of this pales in comparison to the biggest reason for why the Tories won the election: “Get Brexit done.” As John Crace has remarked, this was the biggest lie of the election—and it will cost the English dearly. Look, English voters: the Brexit paralysis we have experienced for the past three years has not been because the Tories didn’t have a majority in Parliament. It’s because Brexit is complicated, difficult, and costly.

The media has encouraged this foolish, self-regarding stupidity. Brexit isn’t hard because British Remainers don’t want it. It’s hard because I, along with the 440 million people in Continental Europe, aren’t going to hand your unicorn on a silver platter. Neither will Trump’s America or China. We have our own interests and we are going to protect them.

I repeat: you are not a world power anymore. If you try and force a deal, you will get nothing, and your economy will implode.

I’m going to abandon my normally calm, rational tone and say it like it is. If you voted Tory, you’ve fucked the young. You’ve fucked the disabled, the homeless, and the people on low pay. You put a noose around the neck of the NHS. Don’t come begging to me when Brexit screws you over; I told you so.

Intermezzo: The Stupor of Brexit

Hail readers!

Following on from my previous post—that Fallen Love is coming out in December—I can provide you with a short update. I am due to meet with my marketing consultant tomorrow, for my first hour of consultation. Fingers crossed! As for my designer, he is on a trip and will return to work on Monday.

In the meanwhile, I am writing another post, on the subject of the title: Brexit. I will attempt to keep this brief, on account of two things. Firstly, I do not wish to distract too much from the main content of this blog. Secondly, because I fear that a lengthier entry would be a rant as opposed to a rational précis.

Let’s start with the title, shall we? Why the word “stupor”, which the Oxford dictionary defines as “a state of near unconsciousness or insensibility”? There are a million other words I could have used to similar effect: stupidity, insanity, pandemonium, et cetera ad infinitum. The answer is simple—the word most accurately describes the state of the electorate. Not the media or Parliament, mind you; the aforementioned words are appropriate there.

This is an observation I have made while living in Glasgow for the past month. To put it quite bluntly, I do not believe that the electorate actually understands the precariousness of this country’s position. Even the most devoted Remain campaigners have either gone into shock, or have been distracted by other, far less important issues.

I was particularly amused by the climate protests here in Glasgow, which drew a sizeable crowd; a police helicopter and several ambulances; and filled up a square. Readers should not make the mistake of thinking I’m downplaying climate change. Climate change is one of the biggest global issues of the 21st century; it will require a fundamental change in our industry, economy, and livelihoods—it will be a second Industrial Revolution.

But climate change is a global issue, and it will require decades to make these transformations a reality. This country is about to leave the European Union in one month without a deal. Protesting about climate change is like complaining in a burning house—it’s true that erosion from the seafront will make the property collapse in about 100 years, but the house is on fire, right now.

The government’s own documents for No-Deal planning, named Operation Yellowhammer, spells out the inferno in detail. To take but a few examples: medicine shortages; chaos on the motorways; food shortages; and riots. They should also add, to that list, economic implosion. Trade deals that will evaporate overnight. Exporters will go out of business; multinational companies will move their offices (they are already doing this!); layoffs; and Sterling will be nuked. Inflation will rise to levels not seen since the 1970s.

So why are voters not scared about this? Some are fanatics who will want their Brexit unicorn no matter what, and no amount of expert testimony or evidence will convince them otherwise. But this is a minority. Rather, I have come to believe that the majority of the electorate are simply living in denial. And the reason for this denial has to do with something fundamental in today’s politics.

People do not understand the impact of political decisions. They don’t have the background in economics, law or history to understand. Not until something happens—the moment those political decisions start to affect their lives.

I fear that by the time the majority wakes up, it will already be too late. On a personal level, this has two effects. Firstly, I am looking for opportunities to get out of this country as soon as possible: an internship placement, a master’s degree, or boarding the flight to Romania on October 31st—the last resort. Secondly, my sympathy has run out.

It’s your fault, Brits. Wake up and smell the burning building. I’m not hanging around to see it burn.

The Year of the New Europe

Hello readers!

Alex previously promised you two things. Firstly, that he is busy working on the new book, Fallen Love; this is a promise that Alex has kept. He has written 48,000 words, and is well on the way to finishing beta-reader suggested revisions. If you are interested in learning more about the new book, check out the “Upcoming Books” page.

But what of the second promise? Alex intended to write more about European politics. His piece on the Dutch elections was part of that—but of course Alex knows that is insufficient for you hungry readers. Thus, allow him to present his new piece on the French and German elections. Since Alex is a Red Pers editor—for those of you who don’t know, Red Pers is a Dutch newspaper startup run by local students—this piece has been published on their website.

So, without further ado: the link. Enjoy!

Good Morning America! (And Hello from Europe!)

Good morning America!

The phrase seems altogether appropriate on this particular morning. We have discovered—to our shock, thought not to my surprise—that a man who sexually assaults women, plans to have millions of people deported, wants to build a 3000km wall with Mexico, and intends to use nuclear weapons... has been elected President of the United States.

Several reactions are in order. I, being a citizen of an EU Member State, can open a bottle of wine and watch the fireworks. The worst that can happen to us is that we’ll need to spend a bit more money on the military (to keep the Russians under control and divorce ourselves from the Americans). The citizens of the US should be shocked today, but not for too long: Trump’s victory is not such a big surprise, and taking him down will require a cool head and a smart electoral strategy.

In this regard, I wish to propose some courses of action for the American left.

What should the Americans do now?

To begin curing a disease, one must first ascertain its causes. So: why did Donald Trump win? The following is not a entirely comprehensive or fully detailed account, but it underlies the main reasons:

Prejudice

Sorry folks, but this one cannot be ignored. An important reason why Trump won was because he gave voice to the prejudices of millions of Americans. White people saw him talk about Muslims, Mexicans and Blacks, and they thought ‘Hey! That’s what I always thought! Finally, a president who gets it—Muslims are terrorists, Mexicans are bad hombres, and who wants their little white girl to sit next to some big, overgrown Negro?’ (Yes, I’m quoting Eisenhower.)

Personality politics

I always thought that the Americans’ penchance for personality politics would prove their undoing; and here I am, proven right. Sure: Trump is a ‘pussy-grabber’ and a morally bankrupt businessman (hehe) but he also has a personality that many Americans find appealing. When he does funny caricatures of disabled people (they’re deeply offensive but they are funny), or comes out with some big, beautiful, nationalist jingoism—Americans love that. (One could draw an analogy between Hitler’s cult of personality.)

Sexism.

This is not the dominant reason here—Trump’s election is about politics, not about men being better than women—but I think it did play a part. If Clinton had been a man, I doubt the Republican smears on her would have been as effective. But something about her personality grated on people: she reminded men of the ‘nagging wife,’ and women of a heartless, childless bitch. It was easier to paint her as dishonest because she was a woman.

Economics

The Marxists were wrong when they said that politics, and history, is the endgame of class; prejudice and personality are just as important. But economics did a play a role here—and it is sometimes overlooked. Most white people are not privileged (as so many theorists misleadingly claim). This is for the simple fact that most white people aren’t rich, and in America, money talks. Americans were angry—angry that jobs went to China and Mexico, and that their standard of living had been eroded by financial crises.

Courses of Action

There are several things the American left should do after this calamity. Let’s begin with the first: concerted opposition. This will unfortunately be difficult as the Republicans control both the executive branch of the US government, and both houses of the legislative. Moreover it is possible that some Supreme Court justices will bugger off and die; Trump will then appoint new ones (and you can be sure they won’t be good judges).

The only options in the immediate term, therefore, are the following:

1. Legal battles. Trump has plenty to be held to account for—he was accused of raping a 13-year old girl, sexually molesting several women, and he bragged about not paying taxes. A lawsuit on one or more of those issues might get him impeached.
2. Protest. Put Trump under pressure: organise large scale protests. See how he reacts.
3. Work with ‘moderate’ Republicans (let’s say ‘Trump-hostile’ since there there’s no such thing as a moderate Republican). Block Trump’s Bills in the Senate and in the HoR.

In the longer-term, the American left needs to do the following:

1. Get people to register as Democrats so they can vote in the next Democratic nominations. Remember, the Democratic party blocked non-registered voters from voting because polling showed they would have preferred Bernie Sanders; let’s remember that lesson.
2. Kill the pundits. Okay, I’m speaking metaphorically here. The pundits have been preaching from the same hymn sheet for decades now: American politics is all about appealing to the centre, they say. Trump wouldn’t win the Republican nomination, and certainly not the election. And Clinton could appeal to centrist voters—Sanders was too radical. Well, all that turned out to be disastrously wrong.
3. Nominate Bernie Sanders? Or at least some other likable left-wing politician.
4. Campaign hard. Trump has shown to the world that Americans are thick racists (as has Brexit for the UK). This needs to change. The left needs to persuade people that Mexicans are people just like us, that Blacks are not a bunch of criminals, and that the kind of chauvinistic misogyny which Trump displayed is badly out of date.

What about the EU?

Finally, I shall briefly address what we in Europe need to do. I see three key areas where we need to rethink our policies:

The military

This is the big one. Trump thinks NATO is America paying for Europe’s defence (and not entirely untruthfully, might I add) and he seems to have a liking for Vladimir Putin; this is bad news.

The EU can entertain diplomatic talks at the emergency summit they’ve invited Trump to: but let’s face reality here. Trump has stated his intentions clearly, and there’s not much diplomacy can do. The EU needs to spend more on the military, go forward with plans to e.g. have a common EU R&D fund for defence research, and we may even have to contemplate the extreme option of scrapping NATO and getting our own EU army.

Foreign policy.

There’s no telling what diplomatic gaffe Trump will perform, or what he’ll do in Syria; the EU needs to consider any and all possibilities.

Oh, and Federica Mogherini (the EU foreign policy head) needs a security detail—in case Trump tries to grab her pussy...

Internal politics

This is another big one—it’s possible that Trump’s victory will translate to electoral success for our own fascist parties (namely FN, AfD, etc.)

I am actually rather doubtful of this claim; Brexit was said to increase anti-EU sentiment on the Continent, but it actually did the opposite. We need to wait and see how Trump will really affect domestic EU politics.

I suspect he won’t—Europeans don’t really care that much about American politics. Europhobia has roots in migration (both intra-EU but mainly outside of EU), economic vicissitudes, the refugee crisis, and a host of other complex internal issues. Trump might make Farage, Wilders and Le Pen feel good, but he will not suddenly drive Europeans to insanity.

Conclusion

Okay, that’s it for today folks. I will at a later date address Brexit and Trump—together, for there will be some inter-relation. In the following weeks I suggest you pour yourselves some wine (or whiskey if you’re American) and entertain yourselves with my upcoming new edition of the Necromancer. That will be out over the weekend, more likely, since Trump will be hogging up the airwaves and make it difficult to promote.

Until then, may the stars watch over you.

The Exams Are Over

Hello readers!

These last few weeks and days I have been concerned with the topic of the EU referendum, and the unfortunate (to put it lightly) result therein. My previous post detailed the consequences in the immediate aftermath, and you will find numerous posts on this blog that treat the arguments in detail.

I will have more thoughts to share come tomorrow—a major meeting is scheduled between European leaders then. But today is not about that. I have finished my A-level exams; and I have a substantial amount of news to share with you regarding my plans moving forward.

On Writing

Those of you who have been reading the Magical Realm since before last week will know that this website is not usually home to complex questions of politics or economics; rather, it is—as the name implies—the go-to place for all my writing-related goodies.

And of course, by far the most important writing-related project for me right now—indeed the most important thing on here—is the Ark. A Sci-Fi novel come gay romance, the Ark is a most intriguing and uncommon work; and perhaps not surprisingly, it does pose some challenges.

For the primer on what I have done so far, I would recommend you to the upcoming page; however it out of date. I could recommend you simply look through the back catalogue of posts—there are plenty in which I make progress updates—but that would take you a while.

I will give a more detailed progress update when I update the page above, but for now the crux of the matter is this: I have written 2/3 of the book. I have hired an editor, and she has given me substantial feedback. This, in conjuction with the recommendations of my early readers, has led me to draft a plan for revising and editing the book.

I estimate it will take about 20 hours (although this is really more of an educated guess) to complete this. Twenty hours of which I now have.

That’s true; I have the remainder of this month, and all of July to do it.

As you may be able to guess, most of the posts from here on in will be about my progress in this department. The first of these posts will be a detailed summary of my experience with my editor. It will build upon this post, but while the former is based only on my experiences going back and forth on the cover letter, this new post will be based on the entire editing experience. Keep an eye out!

After that, expect to see some progress updates. My revision plan is long and detailed; I have a few milestones, which I will detail later on.

On a final note, I have decided to do a few things to my previous novel—the Necromancer. I am considering changing the cover and blurb; I will release a post asking for your opinions on which cover to go with. As I say: keep an eye out!

Where Will I Be?

Those of you who follow me know that I have a tendency to avoid staying in one place. Having lived in three different countries, and having visited France, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Holland, Germany, Belgium and Romania, this should come as no surprise. I have been to the latter three this year.

And this summer, I will once again be in Romania. My grandmother misses me, and a change of scenery may loosen the creative of juices.

I have also been learning the basics of photography. I hope to put it to some use in Romania; I shall post the results here, as well as on my Google Photos.

University

It is all but decided: I am going to Amsterdam to study on the liberal arts and sciences programme (I will likely choose to specialise in economics with elective courses on history, political philosophy, and anything else that pickles my fancy).

Am I excited? Maybe a little. Amsterdam is a big city; I will be alone from my parents. Plenty of scope for being naughty!

Am I also a little daunted? Well, yes; it’s the first time I’ll be away from my parents. It’s technically a foreign country (though one I know, and most people speak English quite fluently). I should also learn some Dutch, which will be interesting if—as all languages are—difficult.

I will receive my A level results on the 18th; on the 27th I need to be in Amsterdam. In the meanwhile I will have to choose courses and pay my tuition fees. What can I say? The road doesn’t end here.

Prom

I shall have prom on the 5th July—which is really quite soon. I have little idea of what awaits me. I somehow doubt it will be American highschool; I have no expectations of supine romance or interruptions by vampires. Most likely, I will have to contend myself with music, drink, and the good company of the people I will be leaving.

It almost makes me sad to think of it like that. Though of course this is silly: I have no regard for sentimentalism.

Conclusion

So: the exams are over. As you can see, this frees me up a great deal. I have a huge amount of work to be getting on with—writing, taking photos, sorting out university, and of course blogging. Wish me well. And do keep following me; there is many a curious and wonderful story yet to be told.